INSTANT CEMENT FORMING USING HOLT-WINTER (CASE STUDY: CV TRIJAYA ABADI)

DEVIT HARI FIRMANTO, EKO PRASETYO, MAS NURUL HAMIDAH

Abstract


CV.Trijaya Abadi is an industry that produces cement, and make various innovations by producing instant cement. It is often the case with errors in doing the forecasting is if the amount of production is produced too much while the demand is small it will cause losses for the company as well as vice versa if the demand a lot while the production will be a bit disappointment of consumers resulting in the company losing konsakuya. know the amount of instant cement production in the next period. The method used for forecasting in this research is Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters method with multiplyative seasonal method and additive seasonal method. The alpha, beta and gamma values used are 0.9, 0.1, and 0.1. With the value of these parameters are able to produce the value of MSE amounting to 52347.63 and MAPE value of 6,649 is forecasting in 2016 for multiplyative seasonal method. For additive seasonal method, the value of MSE is 50560.88 and MAPE value of 6,619 forecasting in 2016. So it is concluded that it is more accurate to use the Holt-Winters additive seasonal method in 2016 forecasting of instant cement. Keywords: Production of light brick, exponential smoothing holt-winter, MSE, MAPE, seasonal multiplication, seasonal addition.

 


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