FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF BRICK PRODUCTION USING THE METHOD OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTER (CASE STUDY: PT SIK KRIAN)

Afif Nuzia Al-asadi, Eko Prasetyo, Rifki Fahrial Zainal

Sari


ABSTRACT

PT. SIK is an industry that produces a light brick type of brick. At a certain period, some companies are rising and the decline in demand which is quite significant. This research aims to know the condition of the company to overcome the overstock in the warehouse. The methods used to conduct forecasting in this research is a method of Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with seasonal multiplicative component and the addition of seasonal. The value of alpha, beta and gamma used is 0.6, 0.1, and0.5. With the value of the parameter is capable of producing the best MSE values with the value 1 in forecasting the year 2011 in October for seasonal multiplicative component, and the value of 0.006 in MAPE and the same month. For the addition of a seasonal best MSE values obtained on forecasting in 2013 in February with the value and worth of 5.016 MSE MAPE 0.013. The results of this research, the company was able to reduce the buildup of inventory and maximizing production for the coming period without having to fear a shortage of stock and overstocking.

Key word : Production of light brick, exponential smooting holt-winter, MSE, MAPE, seasonal, seasonal addition multiplication


Teks Lengkap:

PDF

Referensi


REFERENCE

Agung. S, Akbar. (2009). Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Dan Exponential

Smoothing dalam Peramalan Permintaan Produk Meubel Jenis Coffee Table Pada Java

Furniture Klaten, Universitas sebelas maret, Surakarta

Buffa, Elwood S. (1999). Manajemen Produksi Dan Operasi Modern, edisi 7 jilid 1,

Erlangga:Jakarta.

Buffa, Elwood S., Sarin, Rakesh. (2001). Manajemen Operasi Dan Produksi Modern, edisi

jilid 1 Erlangga:Jakarta.

E.Hanke, et al. (2005). Business Forecasting. Pearson Education,Inc: America

Gaspersz, Vincent. (2005). Production Planning and Inventory Control, Gramedia Pustaka

Utama: Jakarta.

Hapsari, Vanissa. (2013), Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi Klasik dengan Eksponential

Holt-Winter Dalam

Meramalkan Tingkat Pencemaran Udara dikota Bandung Periode 2003-2012, Universitas

Pendidikan Indonesia, Bandung, hal. 38-49

Internet Wikipedia Indonesia. (2000). Batu Bata. WikipediaTM.

http://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batu_bata. 23 February 2015.

Kalekar, Prajakta S. (2004), Time series Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential

Smoothing, Lecture Handout:Computer Science, Kanwal Rekhi School of Information

Technology.

Makridakis, Spyros. Wheelwright, Steven C. (1999). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan.

Binarupa Aksara:Jakarta

Padang, Evelina, et al. (2013), Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api Medan-Rantau

Prapat Dengan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensialholt-Winters, Universitas Sumatra

Utara, Medan, hal. 161-174.

Subagyo, Pangestu. (2002). Forecasting Konsep dan Aplikasi, BPFE: Jakarta

Victor Imbar, Radiant. Andreas, Yon. (2014), Aplikasi Peramalan Stok Barang

Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing, Universitas Kristen Maranatha,

Bandung.


Refbacks

  • Saat ini tidak ada refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.